Complementing Expected Shortfall with Directly Observable Risk Variables
This paper uses daily MSCI Sweden Index data to create one day out ES estimates on the $97.5\%$ percentile level for a SEK 100 portfolio. Thereafter the variables (i) the Riksbank's policy rate, (ii) the Riksbank's balance sheet, (iii) the cyclicality of GDP, and (iv) animal spirits are introduced and compared with ES. As the variables are thought to affect financial markets, they are eva