The Politics of Yields: Do Trump-Leaning Polls Influence U.S. Treasury Markets?
This paper investigates the impact of Trump’s opinion polls on U.S. Treasury yields during the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections. Focusing on both 2-year and 10-year yields, the study examines short- and long-term perspectives and compares the effects across the 2016 and 2024 elections. Using a GARCH-in-Mean model and the “Trump-Head-to-Head Momentum” (THHM) variable, we test three hypot
